20th Presidential Election Forecast

Forecasting the four-party vote share of the 20th presidential election of the Republic of Korea

Overview

• Execute the R files in each folder in the order of the folders' name: 1a_data_generate - 1b_summary - 2_fundamental_model - 3_poll_model

• 1a_data_generate folder

  • save_RData.R executes all three R files in the same folder. By result, it generates pe.RData file that saves historical presidential election results and 20th presidential election pre-election polls.

• 1b_summary folder

  • Use basic_plot.R to plot summary of the historical two-party vote share of the Democratic Party. This plot is included in our manuscript as figure 1.

• 2_fundamental_model folder

  • Run run-fund-model.R to conduct posterior sampling using Rstan. Rstan codes are in fund-model-simple.stan file.

  • Use fund-model-plot.R to make summary plots from the posterior samples.

• 3_poll_model folder

  • Run run-poll-model.R to conduct posterior sampling using Rstan. Rstan codes are in poll-model.stan file.

  • Use poll-model-plot.R to make summary plots from the posterior samples.

Reference

• Seungwoo Kang and Hee-Seok Oh. (2024) Forecasting South Korea's Presidential Election via Multiparty Dynamic Bayesian Modeling. International Journal of Forecasting. 40(1), pp. 124-141.